Stanhill by-election, 2014

Stanhill by-election, 2014

29 March 2014 (2014-03-29)
The Stanhill seat in the House of Assembly. Elected by simple majority using first past the post. Triggered by resignation of incumbent
Candidate Bill Warren Jacob Hilton Max Tailor Party National Party Democratic Party Labour Workers Party Popular vote 5,555 5,534 1,734 Percentage 38.55% 38.40% 12.03%
File:ED-Stanhill.png Boundaries of Stanhill within Centralia.
MHA before election Tony Moore Democratic Party Subsequent MHA Bill Warren National Party

A by-election for the electoral district of Stanhill will take place on Saturday, 29 March 2014. The poll was called in the wake of the sudden resignation of Foreign Minister Tony Moore.

Key dates

Date	Event
18 February 2014	Incumbent MHA Tony Moore announces his resignation.
24 February 2014	The writ is issued by the Sovereign to proceed with a by-election.
10 March 2014	Close of nominations.
29 March 2014	Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm.
19 April 2014	Last day for the return of the writ and declaration of results.
28 April 2014	Parliament re-assembles and the new member shall take the oath.

Background

At the last election held in 2012, the seat of Stanhill was retained by the Democratic Party, with a swing to the incumbent of 1.21%. Tony Moore, the sitting MHA, had served as the member for the electoral district since 1996. Stanhill has typically been a safe seat for "progressives", with the Democratic Party (and before that, Labour and the Liberals) holding the seat since it was formed in 1907. The various conservative parties have only held the seat of five occasions, taking the seat after the landslide elections of 1914, 1917, 1932, 1975, and 1992.

In the life of the 56th Parliament, Moore served as Foreign Minister, and was responsible for the admission of New Ingrea to the Forum for International Cooperation and Trade. This was popularly approved in a plebiscite held in 2013, with the Stanhill district approving the accession by a margin of 71%-29%. However there a number of local issues that may dominate the campaign. The most serious issue facing the district in early 2014 is the rapid decline in profitability for the Stanhill Mine. The future of the mine has been a source of concern for many in the district, and there has been severe criticism from the local chamber of commerce over Moore's handling of the crisis. In addition, the government has so far refused to offer any subsidies to keep the mine open, and it is feared that New Ingrea Mining, who own the mine, may order it's closure. An announcement is due on the future of mine by the 14 March.

Candidates

Candidates as listed in order on the ballot paper:

• The Labour Workers Party pre-selected local New Ingrea Miners Union representative Max Tailor as their candidate.
• The Peoples Party announced Stephen Rowbottom as their candidate on the day nominations closedf. Mr Rowbottom is a retired teacher in geography, with his last posting being at Stanhill Technical School. He is a chairman of the local of the Cavalier Society, a noted pro-monarchist and traditionalist organisation. He is also a verger in the break-away Free Ingrean Church.
• The National Party have pre-selected Bill Warren, who previously stood as the National candidate at the 2012 election. Warren is a resident of the village of Patonthwaite, and has lived in the Stanhill district his entire life. He is a sawmiller by trade and serves as the chairman of the Patonthwaite Parish Council. He is also a member of the board of the New Ingrea Forestry Association.
• The Christian Democratic Party announced that the Rev. Michael Albinson would be their candidate for the by-election. The Rev. Albinson is the Methodist presbyter for the parish of Stanhill. He is strong advocate for social and economic reform along the lines proposed by the Christian Democrats. He cites the decline in mining operations in Stanhill as an example of the current political leadership failing the people of the district. He is a noted ecumenist, and is active in numerous charitable organisations in the town.
• The Democratic Party will be hoping to retain the seat with the nomination of Jacob Hilton as their candidate. Hilton is the former agent for the Earl Braddock at the Ripley Grange estate near Hargrave. Now a tenant farmer on a nearby estate, he is a strong advocate for the rights of tenant farmers and small landowners across the district. He is active in various pastoral organisations, serving on the boards of the Centralia Pastures Protection Board, the Centralia Woolgrowers Association, and the Stanhill Agricultural Society. He is also chairman of the Tenant Farmers Union.
• Gerald Chandler is the sole independent candidate in this by-election.

Disallowed candidates

• The Ecology Party had pre-selected Phoebe Coles, who is self-employed as a "community activist", "environmentalist", and trenchant critic of the mining industry. Coles is a resident of Stanhill, and local notable for her protests at the Stanhill Mine, include one incident involving her and others chaining themselves naked to the gates of the mine to prevent it's operation. In holding a criminal record, Coles was the subject to an investigation by Elections New Ingrea, who disallowed her nomination on the grounds of her not being a person of integrity, good character, and reputation, as outlined in the Constitution.

Campaign

Result

Stanhill by-election, 2014 29 March 2014
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	National Party	Bill Warren	5,555	38.55	17.87%
	Democratic Party	Jacob Hilton	5,534	38.40%	16.82%
	Labour Workers Party	Max Tailor	1,734	12.03%	0.10%
	Peoples Party	Stephen Rowbottom	846	5.87%	5.87%
	Christian Democrats	Rev. Michael Albinson	467	3.24%	0.23%
	Independent	Gerald Chandler	275	1.91%	1.91%
Total formal votes			14,411	93.46%
Informal votes			1,008	6.54%	+3.16%
Turnout			15,419	84.36	-5.94%

Polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation	Sample size	Democrat	National	Labour Workers	Others	Lead
02014-02-2121 February 2014	The New Ingrea/ITN	500	50%	24%	11%	15%	26%
02014-03-022 March 2014	Sunday Express	500	48%	26%	12%	14%	22%
02014-03-022 March 2014	Lassiter-Kettering	750	46%	30%	10%	14%	16%
02014-03-077 March 2014	The New Ingrea/ITN	500	48%	26%	11%	15%	22%
02014-03-1616 March 2014	Sunday Express	500	44%	30%	10%	16%	14%
02014-03-1616 March 2014	Lassiter-Kettering	750	40%	32%	12%	16%	8%
02014-03-2323 March 2014	The New Ingrea/ITN	500	40%	35%	11%	14%	5%
02014-03-2323 March 2014	Sunday Express	1000	42%	34%	12%	12%	8%
02014-03-2323 March 2014	Lassiter-Kettering	750	38%	38%	12%	12%	—

Previous result

Election	Political result		Candidate		Party	Votes	%	±%
General election 2012 Electorate: 16,543 Turnout: 14,938 (90.3%) -0.6 Informal: 505 (3.38%) +0.21 Total formal: 14,433		Democratic Party hold Majority: 4,985 (34.54%)		Tony Moore	Democratic Party	7,970	55.22	+1.21
				Bill Warren	National Party	2,985	20.68	-5.07
				Melissa Morley	Labour Workers Party	1,722	11.93	+0.01
				John Bailey	New Ingrea First	914	6.33	+2.99
				Rev. Jacob Lees	Christian Democrats	434	3.01	-0.05
				Lauren Daly	Outdoor Alliance	264	1.83	+1.00
				Rhys Bennett	New Labour	79	0.55	-0.10
				Louie Barber	Ecology Party	65	0.45	+0.01

See also

• List of by-elections in New Ingrea